This new report from Anthropic is depressing at best, as it tries to measure which employment sectors carry the most exposure around AI expansion into the economy. In short, the tech is likely to impact two groups the hardest: educated professional women, and young workers for whom the career ladder will never materialize. In a right-side-up world, this would change the political dynamics of any policy response considerably. In this one, I don’t know.

Anthropic’s positioning here is curious, very god tricky. They are claiming the mantle of responsibility and transparency while predicting an inevitable end nobody wants, that they’re also selling as a service.

I still think much of the forecasting is oversold – the tech performs well in optimized environments, and last mile issues are a perennial concern in any engineering venture because the practical world is non-optimal. Time will tell, and there are big incentives in play. But the hunger and animus around the forecast feel bad.